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North 49 Shrimp Co.

Financials · , scenarios, unit economics

Three economic scenarios. One survivable channel mix. No promises we cannot deliver.

North 49 has stress-tested three scenarios. The conservative case loses money at any modeled scale and is excluded. The base case is -positive by Year 6–7 and cash-flow break-even Year 7–8. The optimistic case accelerates break-even to Year 5–6.

$3.5M

Phase 1 raise (base case)

$4.5M stretch case · CAD

Y7–8

Cash break-even (Expected)

Phase 2 100-box maturity drives close

$19.46/lb

Phase 1 all-in cost

Phase 2 falls to $15.46/lb with royalty step-down

Three scenarios, five years

MIN is the commodity-frozen channel mix — structurally unsurvivable, excluded from the path. EXPECTED is fresh-premium plus live HOSO plus Asian retail, with as the anchor grant. MAX assumes the royalty step-down is secured at the Atarraya term sheet and the worst-case energy envelope plays out.

Cumulative , Y1–Y5 (CAD thousands)

Phase 1 is structurally a pilot. Phase 2 is the cash-cycle driver. All three lines stay negative through Y5; the question is how far below zero, and how fast Phase 2 can claw back. Source: 04-cfo-financials.md §4.

MIN scenario

Conservative-frozen channel mix. Lease facility. Energy-min split-fuel envelope.

Energy line embedded ( )
$131K/yr
Royalty
8% flat (no step-down)
Channel mix
90% Costco frozen at $8.25 blended; 10% local foodservice
YearBoxesSaleable lb $/lbRevenue $K $KOPEX $K $KCum. FCF $K
Y120 (8 mo)35,000$8.002801351,262-1,117-1,139
Y22055,000$8.254541851,342-1,073-2,248
Y32057,000$8.504851921,372-1,079-3,366
Y460 avg165,000$8.501,4035453,812-2,955-6,433
Y5100280,000$8.502,3809205,412-3,952-10,575

Verdict. NEVER breaks even. Structurally money-losing channel mix. Excluded from the recommended path.

EXPECTED scenario

Premium fresh + live HOSO + Asian retail. Owned-or-favourable lease. BCSRIF-supported. Energy-expected split-fuel.

Energy line embedded ( )
$177K/yr
Royalty
8% flat (no step-down negotiated)
Channel mix
50% Costco fresh / 35% restaurants / 15% Asian retail at blended $13.50/lb steady state
YearBoxesSaleable lb $/lbRevenue $K $KOPEX $K $KCum. FCF $K
Y120 (8 mo)39,000$12.50488145978-635-674
Y22058,000$13.507832001,038-455-1,192
Y32061,000$13.758392081,068-437-1,696
Y460 avg182,000$13.502,4575803,020-1,143-3,036
Y5100298,000$13.253,9499303,920-901-4,253

Verdict. Cash break-even Year 7–8 with royalty step-down at Y5. Phase 2 maturity (Y6+) approaches EBITDA-positive.

MAX scenario

Same channel mix as Expected but energy-max envelope. Royalty step-down secured at Y4 (5%) and Y5 (3%).

Energy line embedded ( )
$379K/yr
Royalty
8% Y1-Y3, 5% Y4, 3% Y5 (step-down secured)
Channel mix
Same fresh-premium mix as Expected
YearBoxesSaleable lb $/lbRevenue $K $KOPEX $K $KCum. FCF $K
Y120 (8 mo)39,000$12.504881451,180-837-876
Y22058,000$13.507832001,240-657-1,596
Y32061,000$13.758392081,270-639-2,302
Y460 avg182,000$13.502,4575803,570-1,693-4,118
Y5100298,000$13.253,9499304,470-1,451-5,687

Verdict. Phase 2 cumulative cash gap Y5 −$5.7M. Requires $1.5M+ Phase 2 follow-on capital to clear burn before break-even Y7–8.

Break-even prices: Phase 1 (20-box) $17.58/lb; Phase 2 (100-box) $11/lb. Cash break-even year: Year 7–8 (Expected case). Source: 04-cfo §4.5, §5.1.

Capital stack

The 2026 anchor is at 90% while remains closed to new applications. Senior debt comes from with the equipment-loan layer through . The equity slot uses a angel syndicate in place of the previously-modeled Costco-Manager Class B tranche (per Section A.10 contradiction-2).

Stack composition · mid-points of working ranges

SourceAmount% of stackTypeNotes
BCSRIF (anchor)$1.5M40%Grant — non-repayableBC Salmon Restoration and Innovation Fund. 90% cost-share. Subject to V-04 DFO Pacific pre-consultation by 2026-06-08.
Investor Class A$750K20%Lead investor common-voting share. Tranche 2 of drawdown sequence.
VANTEC angel syndicate$525K14%Substitutes Costco-Manager Class B (per A.10 contradiction-2). Range $300–750K; mid-point shown. Decision deadline 2026-07-15 (FG-10).
FCC senior term$450K12%Senior debtFarm Credit Canada uncovered senior secured. Range $400–500K; mid-point shown. DSCR ≥1.20× covenant by Y3 (pre-negotiate interest-only deferral through Y3).
CALAP equipment loan$350K9%Equipment loanCanadian Agricultural Loans Act Program. Prime + 1%. 10-year amortization.
Founder Class C$150K4%4-year founders' restricted vesting. Tranche 1 (Day 0–14).
AgriAssurance + IAF + BC ETG$50K1%Grant — non-repayableCumulative cert + training reimbursements on BAP/BRCGS/HACCP milestones.
Total (mid-points of working ranges)$3.8M100%Base $3.5M · stretch $4.5MPer SITE-CONTENT-PLAN §A.3

Capital drawdown timeline

Cash is sequenced against milestone gates. The single largest sequencing risk is BCSRIF Tranche 1 gating + drawdowns. A 3-month BCSRIF delay = 3 months of OPEX burn before the senior debt arrives. Mitigation: $200K investor bridge facility, drawable if BCSRIF slips >60 days.

  1. Tranche 1M0

    Founder Class C

    Incorporation (BC Inc. + ShA executed)

    $150K

    cum. $150K

  2. Tranche 2M1–M3

    Investor Class A

    ShA executed; due-diligence complete

    $750K

    cum. $900K

  3. Tranche 3M2–M5

    VANTEC angel syndicate

    Pitch event + syndicate lead confirmed (replaces Class B per A.10)

    $525K

    cum. $1.4M

  4. Tranche 4M4–M6

    BCSRIF Tranche 1

    Contribution agreement executed; Atarraya signed; site lease executed

    $500K

    cum. $1.9M

  5. Tranche 5M5–M6

    FCC senior term

    Site lease + Atarraya signed + BCSRIF agreement

    $450K

    cum. $2.4M

  6. Tranche 6M6–M7

    CALAP equipment loan

    FCC credit approved; equipment PO issued

    $350K

    cum. $2.7M

  7. Tranche 7M6–M9

    BCSRIF Tranche 2

    First Atarraya boxes commissioned; BC MWR authorization filed

    $500K

    cum. $3.2M

  8. Tranche 8M10–M12

    BCSRIF Tranche 3

    Phase 1 commissioning complete; BRCGS Stage 1 audit booked

    $300K

    cum. $3.5M

  9. Tranche 9M13–M15

    BCSRIF Tranche 4

    BRCGS cert + first revenue from restaurant channel

    $200K

    cum. $3.7M

  10. Tranche 10Y1–Y2

    AgriAssurance + IAF

    Cert milestones (BAP/BRCGS), training receipts ongoing

    $50K

    cum. $3.8M

Unit economics

Phase 1 all-in cost is $19.46/lb — above any modeled blended . Phase 2 closes to $15.46/lb on volume scale, facility efficiency, and the 8% → 3% . Only one Phase 1 channel — DTC at farmers markets — earns positive margin at $19.46/lb full cost. That is not the operating model; restaurant live HOSO and Asian retail live-tank carry the bridge.

Cost components per lb · Phase 1 vs Phase 2 (CAD)

ComponentPhase 1 $/lbPhase 2 $/lbNotes
Feed$2.38$2.20FCR 1.4 × $1.70/lb feed; Phase 2 volume discount
Postlarvae$0.35$0.30American Penaeid air-freight
Packaging$0.35$0.25
Cold-chain$0.35$0.25
Labour$6.09$6.04$365K Phase 1, $1,812K Phase 2 across 5 → 24.5 FTE
Facility$1.92$0.95Scale efficiency on tenant improvements + lease NNN
Energy$2.95$2.07Expected split-fuel: $177K Phase 1, $620K Phase 2
Maintenance$1.92$1.507% of equipment CAPEX
Insurance + G&A$2.07$1.50
Royalty$1.08$0.40Phase 1 8% on blended ASP; Phase 2 3% step-down secured
Live-haul logistics$0.50$0.40Y1 $15K–$25K Phase 1; Phase 2 ~$0.30–0.50/lb. Live-channel only; tilts live HOSO Phase 1 unit margin from -$1.46/lb to -$1.96/lb (per DeepSeek cross-model review).
All-in $/lb$19.46$15.46CFO §6.1 full-cost basis

Phase 1 channel margin at $19.46/lb full cost

At Phase 1 cost basis, only DTC earns positive margin. Phase 1 is a pilot designed to seed the live channel and prove the certification stack; Phase 2 is where the cost structure closes against the same ASPs.

ChannelASP $/lbMargin $/lbMargin %Verdict
Frozen-to-Costco$8.25$-11.21-136%Structural loss
Fresh-Costco$12.25$-7.21-59%Structural loss
Fresh-restaurant$15.50$-3.96-26%Contribution positive
Asian retail live tank$12.50$-6.96-56%Structural loss
Live HOSO restaurant$18.00$-1.46-8%Near break-even
DTC / farmers market$23.00$3.5415%Only profitable Phase 1 channel

EBITDA bridge · Phase 1 → Phase 2

From Phase 1 Y3 EBITDA −$437K to Phase 2 Y5 EBITDA. Volume scale to 100 boxes adds ~$2.0M; facility and labour efficiency at scale adds ~$0.6M; incremental at 8% drags $316K. The royalty step-down to 3% recovers $197K of that drag, lifting Phase 2 Y5 EBITDA from −$901K to −$704K.

Waterfall · CAD thousands

Source: 04-cfo-financials.md §8.3 chart-5. Even at 0% royalty (self-build), Y5 EBITDA is −$585K. The plan does not close inside 5 years on EBITDA — it closes Year 7–8 on cumulative free cash flow as Phase 2 matures.

Cash-cycle timeline · Y0 → Y8

The first 18 months are dominated by and OPEX burn against staged grant inflows. stays negative until Phase 2 ramp; the first positive operating month arrives around Y6 and turns positive at the FCC covenant threshold at Y4–Y5. Cash break-even arrives Year 7–8.

Y0Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8

  • BCSRIF drawdown

    Tranches 1–4 milestone-gated

  • FCC + CALAP drawdown

    Concentrated on site lease execution

  • Negative EBITDA period

    Phase 1 + ramp into Phase 2

  • First positive operating month

  • DSCR ≥1.20× (FCC covenant)

    Pre-negotiate covenant holiday through Y3

  • Phase 2 ramp (20 → 100 boxes)

  • Cash-flow break-even

    Year 7–8 (Expected case)

Inflow Burn Milestone Phase

Top five sensitivities

Ranked by EBITDA impact and probability of materializing. The royalty step-down is the single most leveraged commercial document; the V-01 energy study is the single highest-leverage spend.

  1. #1. Royalty 8% → 3% step-down secured

    Upside

    +$197K/yr at Y5; ~$959K NPV

    Single most leveraged term-sheet ask. Walk-away alternative: self-build containers.

    per 04-cfo §2 + §7 Rec 1

  2. #2. V-01 energy: min envelope vs max all-electric

    Both directions

    +$46K (min) to −$202K (max) Phase 1; +$160K to −$550K Phase 2

    Mech-eng heat-load + electrical-load study at $8–15K is the single highest-leverage spend. Blocks LOI until delivered.

    per 04-cfo §3

  3. #3. Channel mix slippage to frozen-Costco

    Downside

    −$11.21/lb structural loss at Phase 1; persists at Phase 2

    Discipline gate: Costco share capped at 35–40% of Phase 2 volume to maintain blended ASP ≥ $14.00/lb.

    per 04-cfo §6.2, §6.3

  4. #4. ASP at Y5 — $13.25 (model) vs $14.50 (recommended)

    Upside

    +$372K/yr at Y5 (298K lb × $1.25/lb)

    Driven by holding live HOSO + Asian retail share above 35% of volume mix. Discipline-driven, not price-driven.

    per 04-cfo §6.3

  5. #5. CAD strengthens vs USD by 5% (Phase 3 US-channel exposure)

    Downside

    −$0.65/lb on Costco Sumner WA depot sales

    Hedge at Y3 via forward contracts when US channel volume exceeds 20,000 lb/yr.

    per 04-cfo §4.4

V-01 energy reconciliation

The published business plan carried a $119K energy line — triangulated from analogous indoor RAS, not from a heat-load calculation. A mech-engineering review against BC ambient and a 28°C target water temperature shows the real envelope spans $131K to $379K/yr, depending on whether the facility uses FortisBC natural gas for the heating load. The right design is split-fuel — gas absorbs ~70% of the heat load at roughly 1/10 the per-kWh-equivalent cost of electric resistance. No site LOI without a licensed BC mech-eng heat-load + electrical-load study against a specific shell.

The site-wide Expected case uses $177K/yr Phase 1. The mech-eng study (Day +21) closes this gate. If the study returns MAX-case numbers ($379K), every page that references OPEX re-baselines and Phase 1 economics break — a material republish, not a tweak.

Open financial gates

What this page does not yet show: a delivered mech-eng study, a signed Atarraya term sheet, a written DFO Pacific BCSRIF eligibility confirmation, and a Y2 OPEX re-baseline. These four close inside 90 days of disciplined work. Until they close, this page presents three scenarios, not one.

  1. Gate V-01

    Licensed BC mech-eng heat-load + electrical study (split-fuel design verified)

    Day +21 (before any LOI)

    Owner
    Founder + mech engineer
    Impact if missed
    $48–260K/yr OPEX swing; can break Phase 1 economics
  2. Gate V-02

    Atarraya term sheet — royalty step-down (8% → 5% → 3%) and 5 mandatory asks

    Day +60–90

    Owner
    Founder + IP counsel
    Impact if missed
    $959K NPV swing; gates Phase 2 economics
  3. Gate V-07

    Postlarvae pricing quote from American Penaeid SC (+ Mexican secondary)

    Day +30–60

    Owner
    Founder
    Impact if missed
    Minor financial impact ($14–18/1,000 PL); major CFIA KILL-1 impact if no qualified source
  4. Gate V-08

    BC Hydro rate-schedule classification at chosen site (LGS vs MGS)

    2026-06-08

    Owner
    Mech engineer + COO
    Impact if missed
    $50–100K/yr rate-schedule choice swing
  5. Gate TODO-09

    Financial-model re-baseline +$26K Y2 OPEX to reflect 5-FTE / $449,852 spec

    2026-06-15

    Owner
    Founder + finance
    Impact if missed
    Model carries 6.5-FTE / $424K spec — non-material but visible to FCC underwriter

Why we are not promising 24% ROI

The original founder plan projected a 24% and a 32% profit margin in Year 1. After ten modules of cross-checked research, those numbers do not hold. The plan that survives the data is more conservative on revenue, more disciplined on cost, and more honest about the timeline.

Phase 1 is a pilot that proves the technology and seeds the channel relationships. Phase 2 is where the business breaks even. Phase 3 is where it returns capital. If we have presented this correctly, the question to ask is not “when do I get my money back,” but “is this the team that can execute a 6-year build into the structural opportunity created by tariff cascades, certified-frozen supplier compliance failures, and the BC live-shrimp gap.” The numbers on this page tell you why we think yes.

Funding planRisk registerRoadmap →